In newly available polling from The New York Times and Siena College, Democrats are leading in three swing state Senate races on the ballot this year, including those in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
In Georgia and Arizona, Democratic incumbents are running for re-election in states where Republicans have semi-recently won statewide races, while in Pennsylvania, Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is facing Trump-backed Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in a race to replace outgoing Republican Pat Toomey. In the Times polling, Fetterman is up by what rounds to six, with a rounded total of 49 percent of the support to Oz’s 44 percent. Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly had 51 percent to the 45 percent secured by Republican Blake Masters, while Georgia Dem Raphael Warnock got 49 percent, with Republican challenger Herschel Walker at 46 percent. Masters and Walker are both aligned with Trump.
The Times polling also found the Senate race in Nevada, in which Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is running for re-election against election conspiracist Adam Laxalt, tied, with both candidates at 47 percent of the support. If these results reflect the final outcomes of these races, Democrats will likely retain the Senate, even if Nevada’s seat flips to the Republicans. Some of the other most competitive U.S. Senate races this year, including those in Wisconsin and North Carolina, are for seats already held by Republicans, meaning the GOP winning wouldn’t change the balance of power. Although it’s imprecise, the deluxe edition of the FiveThirtyEight forecast for who will control the Senate after the midterms gives Dems only a slim advantage. Polling, though, has already underestimated Democratic support this cycle. In a special election for Congress in New York, not a single publicly released poll cataloged by FiveThirtyEight had the Democratic contender leading — but they won and are now in Congress.
Relevant factors in the Senate races taking place this year include the scandals around Walker in Georgia, although considering Trump, it’s anybody’s guess whether these issues will have an impact. Walker is a serial liar who has even held himself out as having been involved in law enforcement despite no apparent indication of any kind of real police career. He also discussed a so-called military career that in reality was just speaking engagements, and he claimed to have hundreds of people in his employ in textiles, despite scant evidence. Two options for the company to which he was potentially trying to refer were already closed, and evidence indicates he wasn’t actually involved in the founding or primary control of either.
Democrats have outraised Republicans across key races. Warnock raised some $11.9 million in individual contributions just from October 1 to the 19th, per federally available data. Walker only raised some $5.7 million in individual contributions in the same period. Warnock also had about twice as much in cash on hand, meaning available funds, when that reporting period ended.
