Recent polling done in Pennsylvania by a political surveying team at Franklin & Marshall College found incumbent President Joe Biden a whopping ten percentage points ahead of Donald Trump ahead of the two’s expected electoral rematch later this year.
The two appearing in the general election this year is basically set, with both candidates at levels of support necessary within their respective parties’ presidential primaries to lock down nominations this year. Trump managed to win Pennsylvania in 2016, but the state went to Biden’s column four years later, and Democrats have also seen other electoral success there recently. That includes wins in races for governor and Senate.
The new polling had Biden at 48 percent of the support, with Trump at 38 percent. The question producing these numbers named only the two of them as candidates. Though other presidential contenders will be in the race, naming just Trump and Biden could produce results closer to the general election’s actual outcome, considering the precedent in recent elections of candidates outside the major political parties not actually finishing with much support. Biden still led, though by a smaller margin, when other candidates — like independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — were named for poll participants.
Polling at the national level ahead of this year’s general election for president is generally mixed. Though Trump leads in some, his margins are frequently very small. Besides, national polling always comes with significant caveats since presidential elections are decided on a state-by-state basis via the electoral college rather than based upon national totals. Still, Biden has seen some positive results in recent polling among demographic groups including women, suburban women, seniors, and young people. These surveys frequently drew their groups from larger pools specifically of registered voters.
