In recent polling from Navigator Research that was completed August 21, more Americans said they believe Trump will be convicted of a crime amid his now four criminal cases than those who said the opposite. The portion expressing belief in Trump’s eventual conviction reached 42 percent, while those of the stated belief Trump will not be convicted of something from these cases were at 41 percent.
A full 17 percent said they weren’t sure. The results, reflecting responses from registered voters, represent a significant shift from the sentiments found by this same pollster earlier in the month. In numbers dated to August 7, those who didn’t believe Trump would be convicted led those who did believe as much by six percentage points, in contrast to those believing in Trump’s eventual conviction now slightly outnumbering those on the other side. Among independents, the latest polling also showed the respondents who believed Trump would eventually be convicted at a portion a percentage point ahead of those saying the opposite, representing rising confidence in the strength of the various cases against the former president.
The shift among independents on this question was particularly massive. A full 40 percent from that group now believe in Trump’s eventual conviction, while earlier in the month, the portion in that camp was 26 percent.
In other polling recently done by Ipsos in collaboration with Politico Magazine, most respondents backed the idea of a Trump trial on his federal criminal charges for alleged election subversion before Election Day in the 2024 presidential contest. The portion supporting that idea was at 61 percent, thereby going against the recent push from the former president’s team for a years-long delay before trial. The Ipsos polling also found a majority believed Trump’s charges in that federal case from Special Counsel Jack Smith were based on an examination of the law rather than fundamentally political considerations about something that could ultimately benefit incumbent President Joe Biden. There remains no substantial evidence tying the president to the day-by-day handling of any Trump case.
